This round of severe storms expected today will NOT be the same as what passed through Tuesday. First, there is less hat involved. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler this afternoon. Secondly, we are tracking a mesoscale convective complex from the Midwest. See the loops below. Shot term modeling has this pass through central Maryland, but the prime areas of concern are around Washington, then along and south of Rt 50 in to southern Maryland. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are possible. I personally believe the rain and storm threat on Saturday is the main story. That will have a broader impact. Also, between 2 and 4 inches of new rainfall could lead to flash flooding and guarantee our record for the wettest June. As for timing… it might arrive in the morning, but the heaviest rain will fall between mid afternoon and last beyond Midnight. See all the images below.
Mesoscale Convective Complex
Overnight Satellite Loop
Morning Radar Loop
Short Term Simulated Radar Maps
The prime area for severe storms shows up on both the WRF/NAM and HRRR near and south of Washington.
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