Screen Shot2015-06-27 13_59_41We have had heavy rain and more is on the way.  That’s a given.  The risk of severe storms however was up for debate. Now a Tornado Watch has been issued  If you are residing between central Maryland and southern PA you may have noticed temperatures struggling to barely reach 70F or actually dropping through the 60s.  That strong east wind is feeding into the storm and holding our temperatures down.  Cool air is a severe weather killer, but the boundary to where the warm air is holding will be the prime target for possible large hail or an isolated tornado. This will be with the warmer air and track of a new secondary Low south and east of I-95. This includes southern Maryland and much of the Delmarva through the beaches.

Screen Shot2015-06-27 13_56_41Watching the radar can be deceiving as to what is on the way. The surface map shows a new area of Low Pressure forming in North Carolina and that will pivot ahead of the primary Low in Ohio. This is a late winter pattern if I ever saw one. So plotting this in late June is what makes targeting the severe zone difficult.  However that secondary Low is what will be responsible for the surge of heavy rain this evening and tonight. So in addition to just saying more is on the way.. A LOT more is on the way. See the radar simulation below. The Oriole’s optimism to play tonight’s game was met with a wet reality.  A split double header will be played Sunday when it is much better. Hopefully if you live near a stream or river, it won’t break it’s banks. More info below.


Simulated Radar


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Severe Storm Safety Links

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HRRR Model Rainfall Forecast

This model shows some incredible amounts of rain, over 6 inches north of Baltimore. That seems quite high. The purpose here is that at least a few additional inches of rain will fall and flooding seems very likely.

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Also see:

4 Inch hail In Baltimore County

Record Wettest June in Baltimore- More on the way

Severe Storm Risk Maps

Again, this was the morning outlook and our cool air in central Maryland has diminished our risk.  But the prospects hold east of I-95

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