A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 1 PM for counties west of Baltimore. A Flash Flood Watch includes counties around the Chesapeake Bay. For starters, this system is not as strong as it was yesterday. Also, much of the energy split west of the mountains. But there is upper level support to provide just enough push tonight, and perhaps tomorrow as well. However the ground is so saturated, all it takes is a half inch of rain in some spots to lead to more flooding.
Below is an image heavy explanation of the play out. I wanted a slightly different format to cut down on the reading time since the All Star Game is on this evening. Note that I’ve noticed the radar simulation not working so well today. I will show it anyway, but the modeling is having some trouble with this set up. Also, the wind direction is always important when we watch storms arriving over the mountains. A south to southeast wind can enhance the storms. That has been marginal, but supportive.
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Visible Satellite Loop
This animation shows the upper level Low Pressure circulation dropping south from Michigan and the Great Lakes. Ahead of it the bright white line of clouds show the boundaries that flared up with storms. This circulation will play a role not only in tonight’s storm potential but also tomorrow morning.
There has been a few strong squall lines today, but riding the upper level winds they have taken a dive to the south. Now that the upper level Low appears to be getting close, there is a directional shift. The next band of rain should move more towards the east. It will battle the downslope from the mountains, but there is marginal wind support form the south to southeast from the Bay.
This appears to slow down as it passed over metro Baltimore tonight. It could linger and spawn nearby and coastal showers tomorrow as well.
The main energy will pass over central Maryland within a few hours of midnight. The action will settle down afterwards, but there is chance for wrap around showers Wednesday if that fort max holds form over the Delmarva
More on the back end of this system in the morning.
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