Screen Shot2015-08-06 07_20_13Yesterday I mentioned the storm on the way as being the first test for the computer models leading into the next season. This synoptic scale system is a later Low Pressure that is more like a fall or winter system. The test is that we have a very strong El Nino building in the Pacific which is infusing energy and upper level wind influence into this storm. Many models can’t account for the intensity since there is a heavy weight on climate averages. As a result, the push aloft is bringing the rain a little farther north, so we get some today.  But the heaviest rain should still pass south of our region in Virginia and the Carolinas.  If you are in Ocean City or the beaches, the rain will linger longer and the resulting northeast wind behind the storm will keep up the waves, beach erosion, and the temps down beyond the weekend. See the radar simulations below.

On a personal note, my Trek Across Maryland for Cool Kids Campaign begins Sunday August 9 at the summit of Wisp in western Maryland. Temps should start in the 50s and stay dry. Perfect! Temperatures will remain near or below normal through next week, but there may be other hits of rain. I will be discussion that trek a lot more, and my entire website will be upgraded by Friday along with a page to track the trek and my team into Ocean City over 7 days.  Please get in early and pledge your support (after reading the weather update) on this link. You can see we are more than half of what I raised last year ($23K). Click on my pic with the orange background and get inline for a few giveaways we will have during the trek.

Back to the weather…

Radar Simulations

HRRR and NAM/WRF Models

Both models show a similar set up at 4 PM with rain on the doorstep of Washington and just west of Baltimore. Plan for rain this evening and tonight.

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GFS Model

The center of this storm will pass well to our south, but a hint it will stall near OBX into Saturday. This will increase the northeasterly winds along the coast, adding to beach erosion. The rain should depart Saturday morning, but can’t rule out lingering showers and cooler air with the wind off the water.  Inland, a dry weekend with a hint of autumn in the air.

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Beach Erosion:

This is a sample of the numerous views of eroded beaches in Ocean City, MD. This is somewhat common, happened last summer, and was rebuilt. But to can be an unwelcome surprise to vacationers.

Temperatures: Nice Cool Down.

Sunday Morning Temps… My personal focus on western Maryland for the start of my trek with lows in the 50s 🙂

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No oppressive heat or humidity as we have seen recently. These temperatures are based at Baltimore’s BWI. So just a tad cooler inland.

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