The first hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season is now a major hurricane reaching Category 3 with the latest National Hurricane Center advisory. The top wind sustained winds are 115 mph, but it should be noted that this is still a little storm. The hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds reach 70 miles from the eye. Call it the little storm that could, or mighty mouse. Danny is as compact as a storm this strong can possibly be.
The forecast track of Danny is still on a path to cross over the northeastern Caribbean islands after the weekend. This includes the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and The Dominican Republic. The long range forecast also includes dry air and increased sheering winds (a typical El Nino year feature). This will inevitably cause Danny to weaken. But the recent surge still is cause for concern with higher waves, worm surge at landfall, and rainfall along the immediate path.
I have notice a bump to the north or right side in the last few hours. There is a tendency for storms to trend to the right side of the forecast. This would place the eye over or north of the Virgin Islands Monday into Tuesday. That is when it should encounter more sheer. Then ‘could’ be a threat (but in a weakened form) to the Bahamas and Florida.
This was an interim advisory from the National Hurricane Center based off of Air Force Recon Flight. No additional information is available from this morning. See the computer model forecast track maps below.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
Tropical Posts: Hurricane Info
- 2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast
- History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
- Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video
National Hurricane Center Maps
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