SatMapRain is on the move, and it will be with us most of the day. It is important to note that while it will get wet, there will be a few dry hours in between. But when it rains, it may come down heavy. Pockets of flooding and even embedded severe storms may pop up this afternoon. In my last update, I suggested that error the models displayed with the Thursday event, and also that today’s developing storm had similarities. I still see that. A broad Low Pressure will be forming over Maryland. Considering the rain arriving already this morning, the timing is a little faster than first suggested. The other factor is that the heaviest rain expanded farther north that these models had shown. I see the trend already, and the final result could still bump north.

Here are two separate commuter model radar simulations for today. The HRRR and NAM/WRF models have some differences is timing and placement, but overall show the same ideas:

  1. There will be a few waves of rain
  2. The strongest storms could turn severe in southern Maryland and the Delmarva. But if the trend proves true, that may include central Maryland.
  3. Most of the afternoon will be stormy, but if the faster timing proves true, then we might be able to salvage the later evening hours.

Radar Simulation Sliders To Compare Models —>

HRRR Model

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Total Rainfall: Heavy Rain Shifts North

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The big story behind the storm will be the autumn preview. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 70s on Sunday and drop into the 40s inland from the city/bay Monday morning. But a warming trend will return next week.

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