Screen Shot2015-09-21 21_33_58We just had our cool Monday to break the heat, and the rain was slow to move into the central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.  Baltimore’s high temp of 69F was the first day below 70F since June 4th (108 days). While we get to dry out and moderate for a few days, the next pattern adjustment will be felt by Friday. So the first weekend of Fall will feel like it. Last night I mentioned the coastal Low and easterly flow, but did not want to get into the details or specifics yet. This was because I did not think the models were handling the Low well, as the trend lately was for systems to end up farther north than expected. Perhaps it is the El Nino influence…

Well, the last few model runs have been steadily pushing the focus of the rain farther north. Combine a strong High in New England that will be replaced by anther one over the weekend, with the developing coastal Low and the wind flow will increase. Like putting your thumb over a garden hose and watching the water shoot out faster… that is how the wind will funnel into the Mid Atlantic this weekend. That means more rip currents and beach erosion, as well has more rain spreading inland.

Here is a look at the GFS model handling the rain even through the weekend. It looks a lot more wet than yesterday. While there is time for more adjustments, I wanted to share this now, so we can look back each day and compare.


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I will post more updates on this to spot any adjustments all week long.

Fall Begins: Autumnal Equinox at 4:21 AM Wednesday


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