Screen Shot2015-10-02 06_03_48The forecast track for Hurricane Joaquin continues to push farther east. It still is a Cat 4 and has 130 mph winds, but we will NOT get a direct hit. However there will be heavy rain and strong wind gusts over 50 mph on the coast. I know, that is not hurricane force, but that would be what the outer edge would feel like.

Waves may reach over 10 feet high along with tides pushing up the Chesapeake Bay. Basically flooding will occur from rain falling down or water pushing up. So the State Of Emergency for Virginia and Maryland will be relevant.

Wind Advisory for gusts over 50 mph on Delmarva. High Surf Advisory for waves over 10 feet. Coastal Flood Warning and Watches along the beaches and Chesapeake Bay. Just a sample of the issues with this storm that will impact our weekend.

This is an impressive system. The upper level Low itself will produce much of the wind, and the temperatures will stay in the 50s. The push of wind and water will lead to problems on the Bay I will identify in a separate post. But if you live near the water, plan for problems.


The onshore flow will continue all weekend, but the bulk of our rain will be today into Saturday morning.  While central and southern Maryland can expect between 1 to 3 inches, there will be heavier rain farther south with the upper level Low. A large area will receive over 10 inches of rain, unconnected to the hurricane.

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Rainfall Gets Heavier This Afternoon

This snapshot at 4 PM shows the push of heavy rain. I will post a radar simulation timeline in separate post.

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Winds Increase Through Sunday

Again, the hundreds of miles east off of the coast, but working in tandem with the upper level Low, strong winds from the east will increase. Reminder that there are heavy surf advisories, coastal flood advisories, and each high tide will get higher since the low tide will not be able to drain out.

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Hurricane Joaquin Track From NHC

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Tropical Links

2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast

History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video