Extreme weather dominates the nation this week and the transition zone between the heat and cold is producing severe storms. The intensity will weaken as it moves our way Friday, but two things will result. First, it will push warmer air ahead of the cold front and modeling is now catching on with my early mention of reaching 80F. That would set a new record for Baltimore Friday. Second, the line of rain might actually slow down and linger Saturday as cooler air spills back in.
Contrast the 5 to 10 inches of snow in Flagstaff, AZ to the all time November record o 92F in Tampa, FL on Wednesday. Those are far apart, but in between temps in the 50s and 60s into the Great Lakes this morning are more than 10 degrees above their normal high temperatures. It’s likely that we will be in the low 60s tomorrow morning as the entire pattern shifts to the east.
The transition zone will be across Texas and northward along the cold front. There is a slight risk of severe storms with large hail and tornadoes. This line extends north to the Canadian border in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. but this should be the peak of the event. It will weaken a little as it moves east.
Storms will try to regenerate as the front arrives Friday evening. The system will slow down and could stall into Saturday with lingering rain for at least the first half of the day. This cold air will spill in behind this and be noticeable for sure by Sunday.
The record of 77F set in 2005 on Friday (November 6) will be challenged. This is the only record this week we’ve come close to despite the warm air. See more in this prior post.
If you are running in the 10K Across The Bay, Sunday morning it will be colder. By the water, temps will be a little milder than this BWI forecast. The main concern might be the wind, which I expect will be rather gusty. I will have a closer look at the race weather, so please check back.
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