Jan4ColdCoreFeeling like winter is one thing, but will it look like winter soon? That does depend on your perspective. As we get the jet stream to flip to a more favorable winter pattern, my focus (and maybe yours) shifts first to getting flakes to fall, then any organized storm.  The first item up is a surge of arctic air that will open up the Lake Effect snow machine and watching the upper air pattern shows support for some flurries or even a snow shower to reach us on Monday. That might have quite a few teachers wearing their new Faith in the Flakes shirts back to school 🙂

The look at the vorticity showing this is in the first slider.  But the frigid air may dominate the headlines Tuesday morning as the wind and cold may make it feel like the single digits when you wake up.

Will there be a winter storm for us any time soon? Well, I have been hesitant to show routine looks at the potential next weekend as I don’t trust the modeling. Also, since El Nino throws a huge wrench in the mix, this will be our first look at how it treats potential east coast storms. So I have a comparison of three models to show the wide variety of solutions- still nothing locked in yet. There is hope for ‘something’ to form.

Snow Showers Or Flurries?

Upper level energy/Vorticity shows support to carry flakes over the mountains. The core of the cold air will follow.


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Wind Chill Forecast: Tuesday Morning



Storm Next Weekend?

The ingredients for developing this storm keep changing… the energy and timing. Now it appears to be a Sunday to Monday time frame (as opposed to Saturday in my last post about this). I am still not convinced any of these outlooks are on target, but I wanted to show you how much variation there is between the Canadian, GFS, and European Models. Even the more favorable tracks have limited cold air until the storm passes by and then drags it southward. But a good bet that the cold will hold mid month behind this….

The cold air we need is shown in blue on these maps…

European: Shows a coastal Sunday night… but the cold air is not nearby. However, the El Nino pattern is likely to push this a little farther east… perhaps letting the cold air catch up?

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My favorite Canadian Model is not the favorite for winter lovers here. This has an inland/warmer track for us.


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GFS Model: This also shows a colder coastal, and drags the cold air in as it passes by. While this looks promising, I still don’t trust it. It is the GFS after all with low winning percentage this far away. But it is a solution worth exploring.


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Temperature Outlook: Cold Will Hold Mid Month


Faith In The Flakes: It Will Snow… Eventually

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