TueAMTempsAs of 6 AM, Baltimore’s BWI was down to 15°F. That is the coldest since last March 7th when a record low temperate was set at 6°F. Since that day, the airport has not been in the teens for 304 days.  It’s hard to imagine with the 5 record high temps set in December, and a shock to your system. This morning is not close to the record of 1°F in 1877.

If you missed my 2015 review article, last winter was nearly snow free in January, and set 8 cold temperature records in February. There is still plenty of winter ahead of us!

The wind chill this morning will be quite noticeable. All it takes is a 10 mph wind to make it feel like 3°F. But we will Screen Shot2016-01-05 05_46_19bounce off of the bottom from here. The good news despite that fact that we stay near or below freezing most of today, the winds will ease a bit. So expect sunshine and an improvement this afternoon in how it ‘feels’.

We have a warm up ahead of the next storm, that will send yet another surge of arctic air southward and possibly team up with moisture for snow next week. But I think it is irresponsible that some weather apps provide snow forecasts (in inches) more than a week away.  Even if you look at surface weather forecast maps more than 5 days away you will age prematurely. I prefer to look at the upper air pattern, and will occasionally show long range surface maps… but those usually change.  The main point here is that winter is going to take hold, and there is plenty of time ahead of us snow lovers.

Temperature Outlook:

There will be a warm up with the next storm, then the temperatures take a longer cold hold next week

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Polar Vortex: Natural Wobble

There has been chatter building (I don’t read a lot of blogs, but get countless questions about them) mentioning the Polar Vortex. That was an overused term two winters ago, but a real thing. It is the circulation around the core of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere. It is normal for it to wobble and not stay locked in the arctic. That is how we get out coldest outbreaks. Here you can see that it will drop into central Canada, but not close to the northern US. It will send more cold air our way, but please don’t overthink this. It is just a sign of the cold winter air we have been expecting.

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Warm Storm Then Cold Air To Follow

This quick view from the GFS Model shows the storm to our west. I want to add the disclaimer that this final solution is still subject to change… again! But the primary Low will be well west and bring us rain to start the weekend. The question will be a secondary Low to follow and the cold air dragging in behind it. If not organized snow, there is a chance of snow showers to start next week.

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Also See: 2015 Extreme Cold, Warmth, And Rain

Faith In The Flakes: Real Snow Will Arrive… Eventually

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