StormVsClipperThe heavier rain has move to the north and it is warm yet again. While looking at the maps, there is a similarity of today’s storm to the one on Tuesday, but they are very different. The current set up if moving to the north and bringing warm air with it. In fact the mid 60s are possible, even with some peaks of sun. But the record 70°F set in 1950 should be safe.  The next system is a clipper style. The central Low will also be in Canada, but it is riding the colder flow from the jet stream as it moves east and south. The upper level energy is the main reason I expect the snow to drop well south of the center and reach us. The timing, that is speeding up, and changing the potential impact.

Here is a quick look at the simulated radar showing the timeline for the real cold front today, then the snow arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Rain Timeline:

The colder air will arrive with a burst of rain mid afternoon. This could have some snowflakes mixed in, but the main snow will remain in the mountains

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This is NOT a snow storm! This will be a burst along with lingering showers, all based on the upper level energy. the moisture available typically can bring between a dusting to 1 or 2 inches of snow. The higher amounts often in the higher terrrain/hills west and north. That is why the surface reflection and modeling is having trouble with it.  The timing of the energy aloft( 18,000 Ft at 500mb) usually fluctuates with a 12 hour window. It now appears to arrive late Tuesday afternoon/evening and may last into early Wednesday morning. This is not what many teachers want to hear. Should it arrive during the daylight, it limits the stickage potential.

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The coldest day of the week and season so far will be on Wednesday as high temperatures could stay in the upper 20s. But it will be brief, as we modify into next weekend.


I just wanted to focus on the short range now. I will have a better look at the potential for another storm next weekend in my evening post.


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