WeatherMapThursdayJan14Ok, we did not win Powerball last night, but we do get rid of the windy arctic air for a few days. That may or may not make you happy. There have been some snow bands in central PA this morning, but lifting north with the jet stream so then we turn to the south for the next storm pattern. This will bring in warmer air relatively speaking. The 40s will translate to rain. But the coastal storm looks like it is getting pushed to the east. Farther to the east in the Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Alex has winds of 70 mph. See more below.

The Saturday event was supposed to be the southern system almost phasing with one in the Great Lakes. Now it looks like the southern Low may remain independent and shift to the coast. There is a chance the bulk of the rain falls overnight Friday and ends Saturday morning with most hugging the coast.

I will continue to say that this El Nino year is trouble for computer modeling. The upper level winds are faster and the result is that storms will push farther east. Also timing ingredients to form larger events often will miss the mark. Yesterday I showed the GFS Model with snow on Sunday.  There is still light snow, but even with the fourfold increase in computer power, this American computer model is having trouble as over the past week this storm was on, then off, then on again. I believe that when we get hit, it will be from an event that does not show up in the mid to long range but rather within a few days or less.  Real grunt work old school forecasting and less model reliance will be the trick.

First Storm: Rain

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Second Storm Snow? Modeling Having Trouble Again

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Subtropical Storm Alex

This system formed in the far eastern Atlantic on Wednesday. This morning winds are 70 mph. It’s almost a hurricane! The forward speed will increase and it will end up near Greenland this weekend. When I first showed this, I also brought back a topic I mentioned in my Winter Outlook. This warm event in the North Atlantic might help the blocking and cold pattern for the eastern US. However, if you reread my winter forecast, I did not see the record December, but expected a warmer winter with the second half showing the best chance of snow. That is the time frame we are approaching. FITF



Temperature Pattern:

Cold Will Hold Next Week


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Faith In The Flakes: Show Off Your Pride As The Snow Arrives

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