Another Snow Shower Thursday Morning?
There is a weak system crossing the mountains, but this will try to hold today for flurries or snow showers when it passes before dawn on Thursday. Again, just a little thing before the main event.
Upper Level Support For The Main Storm
The North American View of the vorticity product at jet steam level can be complex. Here is what I am looking at as the storm starts to take place. Note the teleconnections… the things happening upstream well to the west that will influence the building storm.
Also- The storm has not formed yet! In fact one of the reasons for speculation is that all the ingredients are not in our ‘grid’ yet. Pieces of energy over the Pacific Ocean only identified by satellite and some buoys. When over the US, we have much more details to look at and factor in. That is a main reason storm forecast improves within 3 or 4 days.
On Thursday…. What goes up, must come down…
- A strong upper level Low in the Gulf of Alaska helps to buckle the jet stream
- A strong ridge builds over the Rockies into Canada
- That helps a digging trough near the Mississippi River Valley
- The resulting upper level Low at the base of that trough will start to close off.
- *This last part is crucial, since it will compress the energy, focus it into the storm, and slow down the system. Should this take place, the storm’s forward profess slows down making for a longer lasting event.
I am using the GFS Model only here. It was best with this past weekend’s snow, so I want to see if it has momentum to trust. Also, it will simplify how this make take shape. As we get closer, I will grab other models to contrast and compare:
Timing suggested here: Friday Mid Day for the arrival. Snow lasting through Saturday.
GFS Model- Notice the Low passing south and then east of Maryland. A prime track to maintain the snow on the cold side. Keep in mind that a shift of the track, which could result from adjusting the timing could lead to a shift in the heavy snow and ice zone.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, this product is not fully accounting for the storm… thus the mid 30s on the weekend.
Another One Next Week?
This is way to far away, but storms do like to come in groups. Should the atmosphere be primed, this could follow behind…
Please keep checking back for updates and more details. This is not set in stone, but could lead to large region wide impacts on travel and events Friday and Saturday.
Faith In The Flakes: Show Off You Pride As The Snow Arrives
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