Bitter Cold And Better Trend For End Of Week Storm

Bitter Cold And Better Trend For End Of Week Storm

January 25th, 2016|Tags: , , , |

January  25 – I work up this morning with a temperature of 5°F on my home thermometer. As expected, it as colder than expected with a mostly clear sky and deep snow pack.  Temperatures trend colder after a big snowstorm as computer models can’t keep up. For today and tomorrow, plan for a thaw- refreeze cycle. So what melts, will ice up in the evening again. That is where you will need to drop salt.

The spread of forecast temps to validation not only messes with forecasted highs and low, but could mess with the upcoming forecast. The slight variation with colder air can influence the speed and movement of developing systems. The next result, that storm rumor you may have heard about is trending the way I mentioning Sunday night.. off the coast. Let’s just look at the maps to tell the story…

Actual temperatures this morning at 7 AM

  • BWI was down to 9°F
  • York PA reached -2°F

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_48_43

Forecast from HRRR Model at 7 AM

Some places did get a think layer of clouds to redirect some heat back down and warmed up prior to sunrise.

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_46_39

 

Forecast From HRRR Model at 4 PM

Temps should get close to freezing in the sunshine, but facing the sun will make the ground even warmer.

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_46_52

Light rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning… It looks light and I will skip this for now… just to show you the storm that will try to form on that front slipping south.

GFS Model

The best performer in the past few weeks.

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_43_09

Canadian Model

Faster and farther east

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_44_23

European Model

This was the one that showed the best chance of snow along the coast. It is a little farther east now.

 

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_51_08

 

Screen Shot2016-01-25 07_51_38

 

 

Notes:

At this point, it does not look like we will have a repeat storm. In fact, we might end up with little to nothing. The GFS has backed west a little, but the European has moved east… both showing just a clipping of light snow for Delmarva Thursday night/Friday. I will continue to look for any sublet changes. Yes, an increase in speed of the southern branch energy could make this more of a hit, but I would not worry about that now.

FITF

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Also see:

Blizzard 2016 Seen By NASA Satellite From Space

Heavy Snow With Strong El Nino And Orioles World Series

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Eye Of The Blizzard: Peak Of Storm And When It Ends

My Winter Outlook 2015-2016: Backload Snow And Ice

Farmers Almanacs Winter Outlooks Favor Snow

Winter Outlook 2016 from NOAA and CPC video

Strong El Nino Brings All Or Nothing Snow in Winter

Faith In The Flakes: NEW LINK

See all of our shirt designs here: Due to high demand, here is a new link with many more options. You can change the color of each item when you select it. Thank you FITF

 

Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.

 [/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]