Snow Report Feb 9 And Grade My Forecast

Snow Report Feb 9 And Grade My Forecast

February 9th – Did you get the snow you expected? If you live west and north of Baltimore the likely yes. If you live in the city, near the Bay, or south, then likely not. If you are new to my forecasting blog, then hopefully now you know why I wait until 48 hours before an event to give my first call.  The high numbers tossed around for days might have described the full potential of the system,  but fine tuning for your location that may have received less is what I prefer to do to limit disappointment or over hype. Even though some areas get even less than my low end.

I am writing this on Tuesday evening while there is still some light snow left with this system. But I wanted to share the snow spotter reports from The National Weather Service for central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania and compare them to my forecast. The north side worked out well, as it often does. It was ironic that schools were open on time in York County where the most snow fell, but much of central Maryland had their schools closed.  I must ask the question: If the forecast is for snow and it snows, but is just a little too warm to stick, is it a complete bust? I know there was rain around Annapolis and Washington that was a bust, even with my late adjustment mentioning that.  So after seeing these numbers and comparing to my forecast map, please share your thoughts with me and even give me a grade.

Maryland Snow:

Please see notes below and the complete spotter list for the region at the bottom of this post.

Screen Shot2016-02-09 16_53_34

 

  • Baltimore’s BWI recorded 0.4″ of snow. The liquid precipitation measured 0.35″ which in normal conditions would have produced 3.5″ of snow. The amount was justified, but it was just a little too warm to stick.
  • Notice the drop off around I-95 and south. That was the warming influence from the Chesapeake Bay.
  • Higher totals inland ranged from 2″ to 6″ with elevation playing a roll (colder hilltops). This covered my 3″ to 6″ range and even the higher 5″+ bullseye well north.
  • Northern Harford and Baltimore County reports from my spotters averaged 4″ to 6″, higher than the NWS reports.
  • My bust was I-95 and south where snow melted or was just rain.
  • The onset was a few hours late, which did not allow the cold to take home before sunrise. That was my main fault

Pennsylvania Snow:

This is a region that I often get the right call for as location away from the water and elevation helped to hold the cold.

Screen Shot2016-02-09 16_52_27

  • Many reports in York County on my Facebook Page ranged from 5.5″ to 7.5″. Higher than the spotty spotter reports listed here.
  • Hanover shading doesn’t fit the 5″+ reported by a few people there.
  • It reached max snow before noon, but snowed all day. There was melting and compacting that compressed the snowpack during the afternoon.



How did I do?

Here is the regional snow spotter map. Again, this is not perfect, but the best offered from NWS.  Compare to my last call for snowfall… The ‘edited’ version only annotated where my forecast was working out and not. I posted that during the morning to hopefully update you in time. Please comment and even grade my forecast on the social media post you saw this article.

I welcome your comments, but must say that even if you did not get snow sticking, it was not a complete bust. It snowed for most that expected it (except Annapolis). Not sticking was only part of the forecast.. and it actually did pile up as expected for at least half of the region. That might not matter if your house is not located there, but it’s worth considering.

My Grade For Myself: B-

Agree or not? I’d like to hear why…

 

MyCallEdited

Please see the Snow Spotter List at the bottom of this post:

 

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Snow Spotter Reports

From NWS Baltimore/Washington Region

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
SNOWFALL           OF 
/INCHES/   MEASUREMENT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
1 WSW NATIONAL ZOO       T  1041 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
MARYLAND
...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
ECKHART MINES          1.5  1137 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
BWI AIRPORT            0.4   100 PM  2/09  AIRPORT                 
...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
1 E BENTLEY SPRINGS    4.0   146 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 NW LONG GREEN        4.0  1159 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 WSW GLYNDON          3.2   121 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 E REISTERSTOWN       3.1  1120 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 NNW BROOKLANDVILLE   3.0   216 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
JACKSONVILLE           2.5   120 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
HUNT VALLEY            2.4  1232 PM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA         
1 NNE UPPER FALLS      2.0  1228 PM  2/09  COCORAHS                
...BALTIMORE CITY...
2 ESE ARLINGTON        0.5   945 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA         
...CARROLL COUNTY...
3 WSW LINEBORO         5.8  1112 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
4 NNE UNIONTOWN        5.5   945 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 E LINEBORO           4.7  1209 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 SE WESTMINSTER       4.5   223 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
2 SSE HAMPSTEAD        3.8  1115 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
4 NE MILLERS           3.4   915 AM  2/09  CO-OP OBSERVER          
...FREDERICK COUNTY...
2 NW NEW MARKET        2.8  1030 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 NE POINT OF ROCKS    2.6   219 PM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
1 NNW BALLENGER CREE   1.8  1030 AM  2/09  COCORAHS                
...HARFORD COUNTY...
1 SSE BYNUM            4.4  1200 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 ESE STREET           4.0   219 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 WSW NORRISVILLE      3.0   924 AM  2/09  COCORAHS                
NORRISVILLE            3.0  1041 AM  2/09  COUNTY EMRG MGMT        
1 NNE BEL AIR          2.0   136 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
...HOWARD COUNTY...
2 SE GAITHER           3.5  1230 PM  2/09  COCORAHS                
2 N COLUMBIA           0.8  1000 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
3 SSW DAMASCUS         4.1  1215 PM  2/09  CO-OP OBSERVER          
1 NNE WASHINGTON GRO   1.7  1255 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 ENE GAITHERSBURG     1.7  1200 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 ENE MONTGOMERY VIL   1.6   247 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
4 NE LEESBURG          1.4   218 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 ESE NORBECK          1.0  1248 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
1 ENE GARRETT PARK     0.4  1052 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
VIRGINIA
...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP     T   100 PM  2/09  AIRPORT                 
...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
1 NNE RESTON           0.8  1257 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
3 N CHANTILLY          0.5  1033 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
CENTREVILLE              T   103 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
3 NW HILLSBORO         2.0  1029 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
PURCELLVILLE           2.0  1000 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
1 NNE ASHBURN          1.0  1024 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            
2 W PHILOMONT          0.9  1000 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
DULLES INTERNATIONAL   0.7   100 PM  2/09  AIRPORT                 
...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
2 S LACEY SPRING       2.0   915 AM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
...WARREN COUNTY...
2 NNW CHESTER GAP      2.0  1239 PM  2/09  TRAINED SPOTTER         
WEST VIRGINIA
...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
3 NE CHARLES TOWN      0.4  1026 AM  2/09  NWS EMPLOYEE            

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