Saturday Feb 20 8:15 AM – One week ago we had daytime temps falling into the teens. What a difference a week makes. In fact the week ahead will quite a contrast as well with yet another storm, but breaking the pattern. Today a spring preview should get you outside as warm air and sunshine rule. It’s kind of funny when you think: We are getting excited about 60°F, but that’s still cooler than it was on Christmas.  Just a thought…. I do want to point out that not all of us will get to the 60s, but most will. If you live near the water, especially if there has been ice on it…that will have a natural cooling affect. So if you are by the Chesapeake Bay, reservoir, temps could remain 10 to 15 degrees colder than nearby. Consider about that if going on a hike and thinking of ditching the layers. The same difference on north facing hills that still have some snow on them. But otherwise we will be well above the average of 46°F.

Here’s the HRRR Model projected high temperatures this afternoon:

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Sunday Showers Or Just Rain?

If you read my post yesterday, I mentioned the threat of rain to close out the weekend. The Canadian Model showed it, while the GFS was pushed south. Now it appears the GFS has caught up. Although still mild in the 50s, it will turn wet by mid day and the afternoon. Nothing too heavy, but not as nice as the today.

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Next Week:

Do you still have Faith in the Flakes? Winter is not done, but it may take a backseat this week. There is plenty action to be had, and the volatility is likely to keep switching between warm and cold patters for the next month or so.  However the storm track this week will be to our west. It will be a strong system, but our region will be on the warm side. Rain will be heavy, and the total of the two systems ahead will bring over 2 inches of rain and possible flooding.  Below is another contrast of the GFS and colder Canadian Models. The main focus here:

  • We break the Tuesday snow and ice pattern
  • Rain on Wednesday could be heavy
  • Snow showers and flurries will arrive at the end of the storm, but doesn’t look like much stickage if any

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GFS Storm Track

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Canadian Storm Track

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Temperature Outlook

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