Snow Should Fall But What Will Stick Is The Debate

Snow Should Fall But What Will Stick Is The Debate

March 1 3:15 PM Update – I know it is hard to discuss snow when our temperatures jumped into the mid 60s today. In fact as of 3 PM, Baltimore’s BWI reached 63°F at 2PM,  and in the past hour they had a 33 mph wind gust.  There is rain on the way tonight, but it will arrive close to midnight and be gone by daybreak, so the focus is on the next event Thursday night and Friday. I have been to many schools and there is a split as to what faculty want.  I can not tell you what will happen to your school, in part because some have scheduled half days anyway. But I can make the easy suggestion that the best chance for impact will be well inland from the Chesapeake Bay.

I want to show you is the agreed set up: Both the GFS and Canadian Models agree on the snow solution. It arrives by midnight on Thursday and lasts through Friday. The bulk should fall before sunrise. Side note: The European Model constantly shows the system too far south and keeps Maryland/PA/DE dry. But this has been an error on the model earlier this winter as well.

Let’s compare the two models, and I want to highlight two things:

The heaviest snow will be before daybreak Friday. Normally that would bring maximum impact. But, the freezing line may stay north of Baltimore.  It ‘can’ snow with temperatures above freezing. It can even stick, on roads… if the intensity is enough to overcome the warmer ground. But that is a big ‘IF’, and why I hesitate with snowfall amounts. It is possible to waste a few inches to melting before the ground can support stickage.  So check this out, and please keep that in mind. I will make my first call for snowfall tomorrow.

GFS Model

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Close Up Snapshot

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Daybreak Temperatures

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Canadian GEM Model

This shows a better chance for snow to reach the Eastern Shore. But it may be too warm to stick.

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Close Up Snapshot

Screen Shot2016-03-01 14_36_50


Daybreak Temperatures

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Early Take:

At this point, the safe line would be to follow the standard impact North/West. The best bet for stickage and morning impact will be in these counties in Maryland: Frederick, western Howard, Carroll, Baltimore’s Hereford Zone, and northern Harford County. Also southern Pennsylvania’s Adams, York, and Lancaster County… and northward.

If you live around Bel Air, Towson, Ellicott City, your area is on the fence for impact.

If you live in Baltimore City, along or east of I-95 in Cecil, Harford, and Anne Arundel County, it is likely that it might be too warm for snow to stick.


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March 1st, 2016|Tags: , , , , , , , |