Thursday March 3 9:50 PM – Snow has moved in and as expected the initial push came with air and ground temperatures above freezing. At this point there is not much more to say but just watch and wait. It will snow! There is enough moisture for a general 1 to 3 inches, but many flakes will be sacrificed in the process of trying to cool down the ground. The grass cools faster than the pavement, and it’s the road condition that will make or break your commute and school plans Friday.
The bulk of the snow in central Maryland will be overnight with light snow lingering into morning. Heavier snow will fall in southern Maryland and the lower Eastern Shore. But the temperatures will be very close or just above freezing. That makes calling how much snow you can measure very difficult.
Before showing the latest HRRR Model radar simulation, I want to bring up these points one more time:
- Temperatures will cool overnight, but the classic I-95 boundary may come in to play again.
- Heavier snow with temps above 32°F can overcome the warmer ground to lay and stay. But it will be a slushy wet snow. Salting and pretreating will be very effective.
- There will be more snow on grass than pavement.
- Schools: Some have scheduled early dismissal. Many suggestions have been tossed around, but I can not confirm what might happen should roads need extra time to thaw.
- Should roads near you be covered in the morning, there will be quick improvement by 9 or 10 AM
As of 9 PM, the Maryland State Highway’s CHART road sensors showed most of central Maryland in the mid 30s. The only roads near freezing were by the PA line. This will cool overnight, but how much snow will be wasted to melting before will eat into potential totals.
Simulated Radar (–> slider):
The potential stickage and accumulation in metro Baltimore is more like 1 to 2 inches. Slightly higher in southern Maryland, but all dependent on the temperature for how much can accumulate.