Thursday March 3 3:50PM – We are still under a Winter Weather Advisory between 10 PM through 10 AM Friday. You may have noticed the clouds thicken in the past few hours. The radar looks very impressive this afternoon as a complex system arrives from the west, but a new system will form off of the coast.
Update at 4:20 PM –
Reports of flurries in Montgomery County a few hours ahead of schedule. Temps are still too warm for stickage, so roads should not have a problem during rush hour.
All week I’ve been tracking the timing and it has been speeding up. Now it appears the snow will develop in central Maryland before midnight. In fact the latest HRRR model (high resolution rapid refresh) shown below points to a band of snow breaking out between 8 PM and 10 PM. The initial band, should it not be virga and reach the ground, will be flurries. Also, the temperatures will be above freezing, so likely result in melting with the initial snow. This band lifts north, and that is when colder air generates on the north and west side of Baltimore. Then, by morning the coastal system takes over.
The real question will be how much can stick. Temperatures today have gotten close to 40F along with the roads soaking up sunshine. This afternoon the Maryland CHART road sensors all showed pavement temperatures above 50°F. It will cool down after sunset. But, some of that energy stays in the pavement. Air temperatures will be borderline with freezing on the north side of the Baltimore beltway, but warmer on the south side. So while the potential is still present for a general 1 to 3 inches of snow, I have a hard time seeing all of laying and staying. At least in the city and southward. Here is the latest radar simulation. Please see my notes below: