3:20 PM Monday May 2 – The sun finally broke free of the low clouds and marine layer today. But this will add fuel to an unstable environment and trigger storms during this afternoon and evening. There is a stalled frontal boundary still draped across our area. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk for storm to turn severe in much of Virginia west of Washington DC. The rest of our region has a marginal risk, which means we will have bands of rain and storms, but only a few could reach severe limits. Those would contain 60 mph winds and large hail 1 inch in diameter.
The simulated radar timeline below shows the expected development of storms, but is a little unconventional. There will be more action after sunset and overnight. One thing to watch for will be the local wind direction. An easterly wind often signifies enhancement off of the Chesapeake Bay for areas east of the mountains. Check out the flare up this evening- including Washington and Baltimore, but also along the I-95 corridor after midnight. There is no promise these will turn severe, but heavy downpours and some loud boomers are likely.