Saturday June 11 – A warm front this morning is responsible for the early clouds and some showers, then an abrupt change of air masses will push temperatures into the 90s. That itself will provide energy for afternoon storms, but a disturbance will be passing through to trigger storms this afternoon. This is where it gets tricky. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has identified the best chance for storms to turn severe will be north of Baltimore. The slight risk means a 15 % chance for any of the storms to produce large hail over 1 inch in diameter or damaging winds over 60 mph. This region as been marked at the Maryland/Pennsylvania line. But the radar simulation from the High Resolution Radar shows the storms diving farther south into central Maryland.
Typically I would go with the southwesterly wind direction that is not conducive to supporting storm intensity around Baltimore. But the past few events have shown storms reaching farther south than suggested, such as this past Tuesday.
With that in mind, I’ve highlighted the areas likely to get the storm line in the simulation. Look for possibly two lines to form between noon and 5 PM. Lasting to 6PM in southern Maryland.
Simulated Radar: HRRR Model
Please note that this is not a promise but potential for what the radar will look like. Consider a 1 hour window for a slight change in development either slower or faster.