Sat July 2 – It is with sadness that I must report the change in our expected weather for the rest of the July 4th weekend. Independence Day holiday was supposed to be our freedom from storms and heat this year. But the frontal boundary that should have locked in our nice weather will be edging to the north. There is such a sharp boundary and just enough of a push that will be the difference between nice and soggy. How does this abrupt change happen? Well, the High Pressure in control is not as strong this time of year and won’t be able to hold off the expanding heat on the south side of the front. So the front itself moves our way, and there will be a return of the heat to follow for us next week.
This does not look good for the local beaches. The question will be how far north this front gets and how it will behave into Monday. There is a split, and central Maryland is on the edge. I was trying to remain as optimistic as possible, but it was a bad choice. I apologize for focusing on the storms more than this outlook and potential yesterday. But here is at least a one to two day notice… The short version here is have a plan B.
Here is a comparison of the GFS and NAM Models. They both bring in rain for Sunday as the front settles in central Maryland. This will bring rain and a much cooler day in the 70s. Monday, July 4th is still up for debate as the front will wobble, and a second surge of energy with thunderstorms will ride along it. The GFS Model keeps that near and south of US 50. So Baltimore is on the edge, but a better chance to escape it farther north. The NAM Model spreads that farther north to include southern Pennsylvania. Both however show rain for the beaches.