Heat Advisory: How High And How Long It Will Last

Heat Advisory: How High And How Long It Will Last

July 23rd, 2016|Tags: , , , , |

Screen Shot2016-07-23 05_58_25Saturday July 23 – A Heat Advisory is in effect for central Maryland, contrasted with an Excessive Heat Warning for metro Philadelphia and northern Delmarva. The short version of this is that it will be so hot it will be dangerous. Once the actual temperate and the heat index gets near and above 100°F, its above healthy human body temperature and difficult to cool off. I don’t want to get stuck in the details or insult your intelligence.  You know to do your best to stay cool and drink plenty of water if outside. If you have not done your work out outside yet, you might want to do it inside now. Temps should reach the 90s by noon!  This is what I think  are the few questions that likely come to mind:

  • How hot will it get?
  • How hot will it feel?
  • How does this compare to ‘normal’?
  • How long will this last?

Before getting to the first two questions, I want to offer this suggestion: Temperature on the thermometer is just academic at this point. Your car will register more heat off the roads. The local back will often measure too hot as well.  The temperate can vary quite a bit from the airport to your house, and in the sun vs the shade… or by the water.

What should it normally be? Today’s stats for Baltimore = high of 87°F and a record of 102°F in 2011. The last time we hit triple digits was July 18th, 2012. So it’s been four years, which is close to how frequently we reach that mark.

Other records:

  • July 24: 101°F in 2010
  • July 25: 100°F in 2010
  • July 26: 101°Fin 1940
  • July 27: 101°F in 1940

*I think we will stay just below these marks… but it will feel like it!

Now… Here are the temperature spreads across the models. First the maps and charts… the

NAM Model Temp and Heat Index

Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_01_42

 

Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_02_32

HRRR Model Temp and Heat Index Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_03_37

Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_04_22

GEFS Ensemble

Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_05_51

GFS Model

Screen Shot2016-07-23 06_07_41

So the comparison for today in Baltimore:

  • GFS = 97°F
  • NAM = 98°F
  • HRRR 101°F
  • GEFS 101°F

That’s just today… How long will this last?  It looks like the surge builds for a few days as the axis of the heat dome shifts to the east and then off of the southeast US coast. That will increase the humidity by Monday, making the air more oppressive.  It looks like a gradual break down of the heat by the end of the work week.

Screen Shot2016-07-23 07_29_40

 

Screen Shot2016-07-23 07_30_08

 

Screen Shot2016-07-23 07_30_42

 

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