Wednesday August 31- We are in the peak of hurricane season, so the mention of a newly named tropical system should not be surprise. Tropical Storm Hermine was named today in the Gulf of Mexico. It has winds of 40 mph and it is crawling to the north at 2 mph. Forecast models that are taking that system into northern Florida and possibly with a track into the Mid Atlantic. What I have on display below are forecast models that show a wide spread of potential impacts. The National Hurricane Center takes the system off of the Carolina Coast, but this would still impact local beaches with high waves and rip currents. The GFS Model shows a worse case scenario track taking the center of storm over the Chesapeake Bay. If this was to happen, it would likely be downgraded to a tropical depression, but still carry heavy rain and possible tornadoes.
Those are the extreme possibilities and not the forecast right now. More than likely, something in between will verify, but a lot of models are leaning towards an inland track that will at least bring the risk of rain.
Note that the High Pressure to north all help block or steer Hermine depending on the timing and it’s core location. I was hesitant to show the GFS, but the trend keeps bringing it closer, so it is worth showing now. At this point, some impact during the holiday weekend will be felt, which looks like Saturday night to Sunday for now. Here is just a quick look.
Computer Model Forecast Spread:
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone