Thursday September 1 – Hermine was upgraded to a hurricane earlier this afternoon, and winds are up to 80 mph this evening. you know the storm will be a problem when it will make landfall in Florida, but there is a Tropical Storm Watch all the way to coastal Delmarva that is open ended. Basically, this storm will move inland in Florida overnight and ride just inlaid up the coast. It may even pass Virginia and southern Maryland with diminished winds, but still tropical storm intensity (over 40 mph). The problem with this storm is two fold: First, it is in a development phase now, which tends to hold intensity longer after landfall. Second, the computer modeling has this stall or meander off of the Mid Atlantic coast for a few days. That can result in extensive beach erosion from Ocean City, up through Delaware and into New England.
- A hurricane making landfall while strengthening can hold intensity longer while inland.
- Hurricane Warning for counties in Florida, but State Of Emergency for 33 counties in North Carolina.
- Tornadoes are widespread at landfall and can continue for a few days.
- Rainfall may become heavier as the storm weakens in wind speed.
- Rainfall potential is between 5 to 10 inches even for coastal Delmarva.
- It is possible there will be little to no impact west of the Chesapeake Bay other than rain.
- Rainfall will drop off quickly farther west.
- There is plenty of moisture available to continue to feed into this storm as it rides of and eventual back off the east coast.
- Winds for Ocean City to New England can be in the 40 to 50 mph range for a few days.
- A ‘new moon’ can make for higher tides than normal.
- Each high tide will get higher, pushing more water onshore.
Hurricane Hermine Stats as of 8 PM
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 84.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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Note: High Pressure to our north will block and help steer the storm. Watching the center of that air mass will help indicate where Hermine will go…