Thursday September 29 – The tropical storm in the southern Caribbean is healthy and organizing. It currently as winds of 70 mph and is moving to the west at 15 mph. It is expected to became a hurricane later today, then make an abrupt right turn to the north as it runs into a strong trough. The will put in on a path through eastern Cuba and then up the eastern coast of the US. But after that is subject to change, so don’t think this will be our storm just yet.
I do NOT like to give long range forecast for tropical systems, in part because this will be heading into a mid latitude environment that will have varying impacts on the storm. Timing and proximity to the coast are important factors as much as warmth of the water. So a lot can change. Below is the 5 day track from the National Hurricane Center. Then the slider shows the GFS Model, which takes it close to the US coast, then curves it out to seas away from Maryland. That is the tendency for many east coast storm like this. There can be other driving factors, but at this point we must consider climatology over anything else. This is followed by the spaghetti plot of carious computer models.