Hint Of Winter: Pattern May Flip For Second Half Of Nov

Hint Of Winter: Pattern May Flip For Second Half Of Nov

Thursday November 3 – Baltimore’ BWI hit 78°F today, just two degrees shy of a record but 17 degrees above average. This warm start to the month may seem like an extension of October and remove any hint of a real autumn. Often times however weather patterns will swing from one extreme to another. So there is hope for cool weather lovers that the second half of this month might show a signal of winter.

Snow Lovers:

I plan on publishing my winter outlook next week and opening up the FITF (Faith in the Flakes) store with new items :-). So, I wanted to let you know I have not lost sight of the change in season, and here is a little nugget of what to look out for.

Snow Notes:

  • An average November would bring 0.4″ snow
  • The most snow was 9.7″ in 1989
  • The largest snow storm was 8.4″ on Nov 30 1967

Daylight and Temps Drop

We are losing an average of 2 minutes of daylight each day. So the difference in sunlight time drops nearly an hour (52 minutes):

  • Daylight time on Nov 1 –  10:29:47
  • Daylight time on Nov 30 – 9:37:12

As a result, a typical November in Baltimore has an 11 degree drop in temperature:

  • Average High Temp Nov 1 = 62°F
  • Average High Temp Nov 30 = 51ºF

The changes are rarely gradual, but rather cumulative peaks and drops, with the drops becoming more prominent. One signal is the jet stream. So with any hint of cold air, we look out 10 days to see the pattern changing, but the models are not in full agreement.

The European Model is the most reliable, and shows a sign of cold air buckling the jet stream across the Northeast by mid month.


The GFS Model shows a different scenario, with a storm in the nation’s mid section providing a cold pocket of air, disconnected from the polar jet.




This does NOT mean snow… yet. But should the signals hold, the second half of November will show more of a colder than average pattern, increasing our chance for getting the first flakes.  The Law Of Averages points to a balance to counteract the warm start to this month. There is hope. FITF


Please Support Us:

My two boys and I will be doing the Across the Bay 10K to raise money to support programs at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. Click this image for info.


Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.

Faith in the Fog

I want to visit your Eastern Shore school:

Due to logistics, I can not make every school. But we have built in incentive for group sales like our Flakes last year.

If you order

  • 40 or more, I will personally deliver to your school
  • 25 and you will be entered into a lottery for personal delivery
  • 20 items or more and all deliveries will be free


November 3rd, 2016|Tags: , , , , |