screen-shot2016-11-19-07_21_06Saturday November 19 – A strong cold front is on the way that will mark a significant pattern change. Baltimore hit 73°F on Friday which was not a record but 17 degrees above ‘normal’. We still have the warm temps around today, but that will change mid afternoon and tomorrow highs will only be in the 40s. Wind Advisory: The transition will bring winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Anything not tied down can become projectiles. The piles of leaves you don’t clean up could end up belonging to your neighbors. Winter Weather Advisory in the mountains: We shift our focus to snow accumulation in the mountains to our west and flurries locally by tonight and Sunday.

There are two sliders below to track the hourly progress of the winds marking the front and the rain line with snow in the mountains.  There will be flakes flying locally into Sunday morning and moderate accumulation for some of the ski resorts.

Tracking The Wind: NAM Model –> slider

Arrival Time Plan: 

  • Central MD/PA between 3 and 6 PM
  • Eastern Shore/Delmarva between 5 and 8 PM
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Tracking The Rain and Snow: HRRR Model –> slider

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Upper Level Winds

A strong storm in New England will be responsible for the deep trough and fast winds through Sunday. The wind flow off of the Great Lakes plus the upper level energy support flakes crossing over the mountains with flurries or a snow shower into the Baltimore suburbs…. most likely west and north.



Snow Accumulation

These are just suggestions by the models…. but the higher elevations can often over achieve or out perform. I expect up to 6 inches at Snowshoe, WV and I will be there to broadcast the conditions. Yes, it is possible and overly aggressive snow shower could drop a dusting of snow… but more likely in Carroll County, Baltimore’s Hereford Zone, and southern PA’s York and Lacncaster Counties.



collagetempFaith in the Flakes Online Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow 🙂
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.



Temperature Outlook

A clear pattern change will be on display through Thanksgiving week


Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

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Chip KidWxDevicesGet the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.