Sunday December 4 – The next system is on the way, and there has been some chance of frozen precip with it. It could start with some flakes or sleet, but that would be overnight and warmer air will be moving in and rain will dominate. Below I will do my typical comparison of two commuter models, which are in some agreement on the upcoming week. The main difference is that the Canadian GEM Model is colder and brings snow closer to the northern Baltimore suburbs and southern PA. Since this is the first of the season, it will hep determine if this or the GFS Model has a better handle on the location of the cold air. But as we see here, the HRRR Model shows the snow confined deep into the mountains tonight.
Monday December 5th is Faith in the Flakes Day. Not because it will snow, but the history of our first snow on that date. I will have more on that in my next post. But if you have a FITF shirt, wear it proudly and take pics. I will make a piston Facebook Monday afternoon for everyone to share their pics. The ones with top 5 likes by Tuesday will get snowstick.
One thing I think is important is the atmospheric memory. The two systems this week look a lot like the track and timing of last week’s rain. Both within a day of each other, then followed by cold air. This time, the cold will be an arctic blast and pattern change. High temperatures next weekend will be in the 30s with wind chills in the teens and 20s. While the end of week storm looks nothing like it had a few days ago, the chance of snow showers from the Great Lakes is still alive and well.
Canadian Model —> slider
This is the colder solution with snow closer to Baltimore and southern PA