Tuesday January 3 – Today will be a slow return back to a normal schedule for the new year. Wet roads and fog will give way to periods of heavy rain that appear to be focused right along the I-95 corridor. The first wave will arrive just after sunrise during the commute, and the second push will be around lunchtime. Totals could push one inch or more or needed rain as we still have a deficit since December 1 of about 1/3 inch, and for last year… The rain will settle down this evening. Behind this storm, colder air will spill in and energy in the jet stream will help light snow develop Thursday night into Friday. This could bring the first dusting to one inch for many… with a second storm to follow on Saturday. Both ‘appear’ to have the focus south and east of Baltimore, which includes Delmarva/Ocean City, and southeast Virginia. See the maps, my thoughts, and notes below.

Radar Simulation: —> slider HRRR Model

[metaslider id=41943]

High Temperatures (well above freezing)


Tracking the next two events

I want to point out the last two recent Freezing Rain Advisories issued for northern Maryland had which did not materialize. The trend has been to push systems farther north, which is why I think this weekend event is still in play. This is NOT my wish casting, but rather a modeling error with a Pacific dominated jet stream. I do not want to put much weight in the specifics today since there are still many variables. Each model run looks so different… The temperature outlook reflects the models that keep the storm farther south, making us colder. So the precise track of the jet stream is still left to be determined, and why the impact for us is still uncertain.

—-> slider

The Canadian Model has been most consistent and reliable this winter, which is why I am showing it here. Note the light snow, but darker blue shows moderate snow for both events on the Delmarva

[metaslider id=41959]


GFS Model

This model has a track farther south, but the error to the north should be considered.

Friday Morning


Saturday Evening

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Temperature Outlook


Faith in the Flakes Online- Flannel PJs Printed Inside Out

Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow ?
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.


thatcher_snowsticksAvailable in 2 Ft, 30 Inches, and 3 Ft Sizes. Also with Orange/Black or Purple/Black. Click on the image to see the options offered by my friend Thatcher at Signs By Tomorrow in Timonium.

Go to http://www.signsbytomorrow.com/timonium/ to order yours today! Click the ‘Request a Quote’ button at the top of the page. In comment box include color, size and payment information. Please indicate whether you’d like to have us UPS ship them to you or if you would like to pick up in our store. Snow Sticks will ship or will be ready for pick up in our store 48 hrs after order is placed, Mon-Fri.

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Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.

Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals