Thursday Jan 5 10 PM – This is a quick update on the second system on the way Friday night into Saturday morning. Only brief notes because there were many questions, but it is snowing now and I need to wake up early for my clients… But will there be more work this weekend? Over the past two days I have pointed out that I think the models will bring that second stronger storm farther north. This was based on an earlier arrival timing the energy before the jet stream could slip too far south. Also, a bias in the models that have had the storms verify farther north than projected.
UPDATE: Friday Morning
Winter Storm Warning for southern Maryland. See the latest projected totals and what to watch for should it shift farther north.
This storm has Winter Storm Watches as far south as Atlanta and into Delmarva. Ocean City, MD to eastern North Carolina could see 6 to 12 inches of snow. But a sharp cut off leaves central Maryland dry… Or does it?
Here are two maps form the GFS and Canadian models I showed this morning with the bias accounted for.. So I drew in where I expected the back edge of the snow to be….
Here’s the set up tonight:
Upper Level Winds
These will carry this system as a southern storm. The expectation on many models has been for the momentum to swing it off the coast before a chance to turn north…
The latest NAM Model —> slider
This did shift the storm far enough north to show snow for most of Delmarva and back up near I-95