Wednesday Jan 11 – I think we can all agree that the arctic air has departed. Even the surprise of lingering ice this morning on the north end while temps were warming is gone. Now we get set for another wave of moisture as the main storm tracks well north through the Great Lakes. This will push in rain this afternoon/evening and a surge into the 60s on Thursday. But the arctic front will drop back south and settle just south of Maryland over the weekend. This will bring another wave of energy as we end up on the cold side… and thus Saturday and Sunday have the chance of snow and ice. More below.

Here are three sliders. First, a look at the short range rain moving in. Most all be between metro Washington to Baltimore and north. Southern Maryland and Delmarva skip this. Below is the wider view of the main storm and warm air as the wintry weather is locked up in the Great Lakes. Then, the set up for the weekend snow and ice. At this point it doesn’t look heavy, but a nuisance to travel and a waste for teachers and kids during the holiday.

Simulated Radar Through This Evening —> slider HRRR Model

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Storm Track—> slider GFS Model

Temps will surge ahead of the storm, but the arctic front will drag behind it and pass through late Friday

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Weekend Winter Weather —> slider GFS Model

The blocking High to our north will keep the front stalled as the next system rides along the front. Enough blocking to help snow and ice develop. The timing is spread out on multiple models, but the weekend looks like both days will keep the threat of snow and freezing rain around.

[metaslider id=42409]

Support on Canadian Model Too

*The European is even more aggressive for the weekend.

Temperature Outlook

While we have this roller coaster, notice the drop to colder temps this weekend. The modeling can’t handle the arctic front well… But keeps trending colder.   Next week may look mild, but winter is far from done. I like this fluctuation because it shows a lot of energy in the atmosphere. We will get back into the action in another week or so.


Faith in the Flakes Online- Flannel PJs Printed Inside Out

Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow ?
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.


thatcher_snowsticksAvailable in 2 Ft, 30 Inches, and 3 Ft Sizes. Also with Orange/Black or Purple/Black. Click on the image to see the options offered by my friend Thatcher at Signs By Tomorrow in Timonium.

Go to to order yours today! Click the ‘Request a Quote’ button at the top of the page. In comment box include color, size and payment information. Please indicate whether you’d like to have us UPS ship them to you or if you would like to pick up in our store. Snow Sticks will ship or will be ready for pick up in our store 48 hrs after order is placed, Mon-Fri.

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals