January 14 7:30 PM – All it takes is one or two degrees and the laws of physics change everything. After a day that brought a wintry mix with wet roads, now we have rain in the dark. The lack of solar energy and a drop of temps just at or below freezing has brought marginal icing conditions back to metro Baltimore. This is already proving even the short term high resolution models wrong. But only by a degree or two. That is all it takes.
A Freezing Rain Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service until 11 PM for I-95/Metro Baltimore including southern Hartford, Baltimore City and Southern county, Howard, and Montgomery Counties in Maryland. The roads are still holding on to some heat, but untreated surfaces could ice up. New problems will arise overnight when this system pulls out and some dry air may help the pavement cool down by evaporation cooling. That is when ice will develop and may poser a problem into daybreak Sunday morning. See more below.
Radar Simulation —> slider HRRR Model
Note the model is already wrong with the position of the freezing line. I am showing this for the timeline of the precipitation. After the rain stops, we will have some dry air and cooling move in. Temps are daybreak will be the same but pavement will cool. If you are heading to church early, pay close attention when you step outside.