Thursday January 26- The cold air is pushing in as we speak and there is plenty of winter ahead of us. Fellow winter lovers are anxious for snow and every little thing in our outlook is met with personal caution. I do not like to point out any long range systems with high confidence more than a week away. That said, the overall pattern may be quite beneficial to us in the 10 to 15 day period with arctic air ready to surge across central Canada into the eastern US. But until then, we will be in an environment where the cold upper level flow will keep temps near or below average and send little spokes of energy our way. Some may provide flurries, snow showers, or even light snow.
As you may have seen, my Faith in the Flakes has been joined by countless teachers across Maryland. In their honor I need to point out two things I keep hearing:
- It is a waste of cold air if it doesn’t snow
- Snow is a waste on the weekend.
*My visit to Clearspring ES in Damascus today. That have FITRF
Well, here is a quick look at ‘something’ that will try to develop next week. There is some upper level energy but the computer models are having trouble with the timing. Should it arrive on Tuesday, we could be in for a period of light snow. Should it be delayed, then slightly milder air might allow light rain for central Maryland.
I say ‘might’ because this is is not a big deal. It is subtle and thus hard to track so far away. Here are the Canadian and GFS Models showing the difference of a day and a phase change from frozen to liquid precipitation. I tend to favor the Canadian Model in cold patterns. But I also favor faster solutions with a north dominant flow. Thus, I give more weight to the Canadian Model Vs the GFS Model here. I just want to show what I’ve seen today and follow up on it in the morning.