Wednesday March 8 – Showers were slow to depart this morning, but the winds lived up to their expectation. BWI recorded a 45 mph wind gust at 4 AM, with some places gusting to 50 mph. This left some damage behind overnight. The warm air is still with us and the strong winds will return.  The next phase of this outlook will be the the transition to cold air. A band of snow will arrive Friday, but most likely not be cold enough for srtickage, unless near the PA line and north.  As for the other storm, and maybe another behind that?  Here is where the irony shows up… I will show you computer models and then say that I don’t trust them. I have good reason not to I have more below. Still, we need to watch closely for this weekend and into next week.

Still Warm Today


Next Wind Surge Later Today And Tonight

—> slider HRRR Model

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Tracking The Snow

It will snow. The atmosphere is primed to produce it. The questions are about the intensity of the storms and the tracking of them. At this point the computer model guidance is just that… a guide, but NOT gospel. There has been too many errors this winter, so why trust them to lock in on these events now?  If anything I see two points to focus on now:

  1. The bias all winter has been for storms to very father north.  Friday’s snow is a little north of where it was the past two days.  So the Sunday event is likely to trend back north as well… I think the lack of blocking to our north is the missing element, so the models are giving the cold air too much credit with the tracks below….
  2. The outlook now goes beyond the Sunday southern storm and gives the Canadian solution credit with a coastal storm Tuesday. That one shows more snow…  I don’t see this as the final solution but does provide another chance in this active pattern.

Part 1 of 3

Snow will drift down from the north but likely not get much to stick in central Maryland. Maybe some near and north of the PA line.

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Jet Stream:

The upper air flow supports the winter pattern, but the surface reflection is not lining up as well… The trough of cold air not week does lead credit to a coastal storm…


Tracking The Snow Part 2 of 3

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Tracking The Snow Part 3 of 3

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Temperature Outlook


Please keep posted and understand that I am sharing what I see and not wanting to push any single event. In fact, I am cautious about long range forecast storms this winter yet I think we need to keep track of the potential.


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In a few weeks my friend Lexi Hack and I  will be bringing back these shirts and the fundraiser for Save a Limb Fund at Sinai Hospital. Also stay tuned for my new Storm Smart Assembly program. A STEM based assembly on severe weather for elementary and middle schools.