2:30 PM Thursday April 20 – With the sun out and the temps into the 70s, we now watch for the potential for thunderstorms over the next few hours. There is a weak boundary nearby as indicated by the wind direction. I have long stood by the principal of an easterly wind flow enhancing the threat for storms that carry over the mountains. This is due to the influx of moist up from the Bay being forced inland and uphill that counteracts the downslope (drying) we typically see with showers passing over the mountains.
Note: The wind direction is opposite the push of the storms at cloud level
Now we look at the Doppler Radar at 2:05 PM showing at least one cluster of showers in south central Pennsylvania near Chambersburg. There is more activity in the VA mountains just out of this single site radar range (Sterling VA). Compare this to the radar simulation from the HRRR Model below.
Regional Radar View
—> slider Radar Simulation
This first image is the short range forecast that looked a little more impressive than the Doppler image above. I also want to add the disclaimer that this HRRR Model has not performed well recently and I did not show it this morning. But I have had a few requests to show it and track this afternoons showers. So here we go. I do think the action will pick up between 3 and 6 PM as the impulse interacts with the winds from the Bay and the peak heating of the day. So plan for at least one shower near and especially north of Baltimore. More action is likely northward along the PA line through this evening.
Storm Smart: My STEM Assembly Program
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Faith in the Flakes
The store is closing for the season. Next week we wil be shifting back to spring mode. This will include a severe weather STEM assembly program.