Tuesday July 18
Today will feature another round of strong thunderstorms, with a marginal risk they turn severe. This will be similar to what we experienced on Monday. The biggest threat will be heavy rain and flooding between noon and 6 PM. The Orioles game should get in, even if one of theses cells sets up over downtown Baltimore. They will build with the afternoon heat and fade in the evening.
That difficulty in this forecast lies in where the boundary sets up that will encourage the storms. They will be slow movers or stalled, leading to a dump of a lot of rain over a very localized area. This is what happened Monday as shown in the Doppler Radar rainfall estimate here. Owings Mills had over 3 inches of rain which led to flash flooding and water rescues. Meanwhile nearby Towson barely got wet. The same heavy burst was felt over York PA and yet many places in between were on the edge or got nothing.
Storm Outlook Today
The short range modeling has not been good. Yesterday I didn’t even show them since they didn’t display the storms. Today, there is a hint, but also a discrepancy. So please take this with a grain of salt. I don’t trust the exact location. We just need to track as they develop.
This model shows the storms between 1 and 7 PM focuses northwest of Baltimore in Carroll and Frederick Counties.
Notice this model has the boundary along I-95
NAM 3 KM Model
This model shows the boundary west of Washington along I-270, up into northern Carroll County and north of York, PA.
Building Heat Wave
Back in to the 90s today with a noticeably higher Heat Index. Temps will be even warmer during the week and last into the weekend.
Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.
High Temps Today
Get $1000 Off LASIK
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Maryland Trek 2017
Be part of my 4th annual hike and bike across Maryland this August. See my trek page and sign up for information to do one day, the whole week, or even sponsor this great event.
Milestones this year:
- I will do my 1000th mile
- We aim to reach $100,000 for Cool Kids Campaign
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
Faith in the Flakes
The store is closing for the season. Next week we wil be shifting back to spring mode. This will include a severe weather STEM assembly program.