Friday August 18 2017

We will close out the week on a rough note, but it should clear the way for a nicer weekend. There are two main concerns today and they go hand in hand. Taking a look at the map for advisories: High Heat and storms with Flash Flooding.  It will be the extreme and dangerous heat that will lead to storms that may drop a lot of rain in a short period of time. Central Maryland and parts of the Eastern Shore are under the double threat.

Severe Storm Outlook

The combination of heat, humidity and an approaching cold front will lead to storms that will have the capacity to produce

  • Flash Flooding
  • Large hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Winds over 60 mph
  • Tornadoes- isolated

 

Storm Timeline

The two rapid update and hyper local models I use on days like this differ this morning but agree this afternoon and evening. Here is the HRRR Model showing a round of morning storms popping up across central Maryland. This is along the same region that had the bulk of the rain Friday, perhaps a little south and east, but still near Rt 50 and Kent Island.

My Trek Team will be leaving Kent Island and aiming to pass Easton sometime around noon as we hike across the Eastern Shore all day. This will be a touch and go situation for us but we have a support vehicle to keep up safe should there be lightning. We hope to stay just ahead of the worst weather as it develops, but we will have the heat to deal with for sure.

Afternoon and Evening Severe Storms

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The NAM 3 Km shows the bulk of the storms forming mid afternoon along the front range of the mountains and hills west of the big cities…. This will grow as the heat and front work together. Storms should cross the Bay this evening and reach the beaches by midnight. Best case set up, this is done before morning.

High Temps

Most areas will reach the lower 90s, but…

Heat Index

The air will feel much warmer and on the dangerous side over 100ºF

Saturday

 

 

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