Tuesday November 28
The mornings may seem like typical cold for late November weather, but the afternoons will continue to be warmer than normal. That is a symbol of the very dry conditions… large temperature swings. The other thing is that in warm spells we end up warmer than first expected. This time we will aim for near 60ºF. While this is nothing like the recored hit that has surged in the western US, and not an extension of the arctic air we have had try to arrive last week… There is no reason to sweat it out. The pattern is resetting and the true cold air is set to move in for the second week of December.
Stats For November 28
Normal High: 51ºF
Record High: 73ºF in 1990
Normal Low: 33ºF
Record Low: 15ºF in 1951
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset 4:45 PM
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This model shows Baltimore barely reaching 60ºF, but I think we will end up a little warmer by a few degrees. There will be sunshine and light wind, so a pleasant late Fall day ahead.
Forecast Animation- Relatively Dry
The threat of showers Thursday night will be brief. The next possible sprinkle will be Saturday afternoon. But the pattern looks pretty dry (for now). While the GFS Model here shows a coastal storm developing, I think it is a blip and the trend will move it back east again. That is the error I pointed out in my winter outlook.
Pointing this out in a quiet pattern now can help identify bias as we head into an active winter. I do think Mid December will turn active.
After this brief mild stretch, temps will get back to near average. Reminder that today’s average high is 51ºF, and we lose a degree about every 3 days. No, that is not COLD… but it is actually a sharp contrast to the past two years at this time. See the jet stream animation below showing the shift to our cold pattern by the second week of December. This should lock in through Christmas and the New Year
Jet Stream Animation
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PJ bottoms still inside out- They have to be to help bring on the snow.
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Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.