Friday December 22

On this first full day of winter, we actually have a warm up. The storm track is passing to our west, keeping us on the warmer side. Traveling might be a problem in northern Pennsylvania and central New York where an icy mix and snow will fall. We will get some rain tonight that will last into Saturday morning. But it looks like a break in the action or at least the rain showers pushed into the northern suburbs during the day. But rain will return late afternoon and evening that may last into the Ravens game in Baltimore. Then we can set out sights on Christmas that still holds hope for snow dreamers.

The high confidence part of this forecast will be the cold air moving in next week and holding through New Years Day. Many days below freezing will ice up the northern Chesapeake Bay and many water ways. It may also bring in another winter storm threat to close out 2017.

Stats For December 22

Normal High:  43ºF

Record High:  71ºF in 2013 (second day in a row)

Normal Low: 27ºF

Record Low: 4ºF in 1989

Snow Record: 5.9″ in 1908

Sunrise: 7:23 AM

Sunset 4:48 PM

*Bay Water Temperature = 43ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Snow To Date (at BWI): 3.8″

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Today: High Temperatures

 

Friday Evening Rain

The leading edge of the approaching storm will spread rain in this evening and it will last overnight.

 

Rain timeline Saturday:

Rain should push north in the morning

 

—> slider: NAM 3 Km Model

Rain will return by mid afternoon

 

Christmas Snow?

This is where we need to draw back on the recent trend. While the GFS Model is the most aggressive with a few hours of snow early Christmas morning… Remember the three snow events last week. I fact it was the. Saturday and then the following Friday events that were coastal systems that were supposed to be out of reach, but ended up trending west. This was also the combination of the arctic front and an upper level feature arriving from the Great Lakes.

I think there is more adjustment to be had here, and we should see this inch closer to us in the next few model runs.

 

 

Last week of 2017

I think we are in good shape. First the chance of snow on Christmas morning, then another storm next weekend. I do not believe this view is a lock and expect more adjustment. However, the cold will hold. The European Model below shows a very cold set up that contradicts the wintry mix shown next weekend on this animation.

Track from this weekend’s rain through the end of 2017 event

 

 

Cold Will Hold

The jet stream appears to lock in the cold air into the end of the year.

 

Temperature Outlook

As this European Model snows highs in the 20s for a full week, I know this contradicts the wintry mix shown in the GFS Model animation above pro next weekend. That is why long range forecasting is not a lock. I am on board with the cold holding.

 

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FITF Gear

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

 

Also see: 8 Things To Know About The Winter Solstice