Friday December 29 2017

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northern Maryland north and west if I-95 and southern Pennsylvania for Saturday morning.  The general idea is a range of 1 to 2 inches of snow with some spots in southern PA reaching 3 inches.

Snow is expected to start between midnight and 4 am, but some initial Flakes may sublimate in the dry air.

The very cold air will bring light powder type snow, that can be brushed easily. This could also lead it to fluff up more than normal.

There will be lighter snow in metro Washington and Annapolis that may bring a dusting to 1 inch mainly earty in the morning.

The bay is getting colder and less of a thawing effect.

 

*Bay Water Temperature = 38ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Snow To Date (at BWI): 3.8″

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Saturday Snow

We are threading the needle with the storm track. The latest indication by the Canadian has brought it a little farther north. The different between passing the central ‘spin’ south of Baltimore or by the PA line can make or break the central Maryland snow. That is why many models show a cut off in central Maryland around noon, but keeps the snow going in southern PA.

 

I will have a better idea of the track this evening.

My First Call For Snowfall

The cold air and fluff factor comes into play with wider range up north

A: Flurries to a Dusting

This area will be on the southern edge of this event

B: Dusting To 1 Inch

This area will have light snow in the morning until noon. Temps will be cold and this will be fluffy snow. High Temps should reach 30ºF to 32ºF here. Then drop into the teens overnight. 

C: 1 to 3 inches

This is the typical northern zones that gets more snow. It wil last longer and afternoon snow showers may add a little more. The wide range will be based on hilltops and the fluffy snow with higher ratios. Temps should stay in the 20s during the day. May hit single digits Sunday morning.

D: 2 to 4 inches Plus

The mountains will have snow all day and get more. Great news for ski areas (Wisp, 7 Springs, Snowshoe, WV all on the plus side of this)

COMPARE TWO MODELS

This is from my earlier post  I will have new model updates this evening

—> slider: NAM 3 Km

 

NAM 3 Km SNOW POTENTIAL

—-> slider: GFS Model

 

GFS SNOW POTENTIAL

 

 

 

 

 

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Keep In Touch All Winter

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends