Monday January 8

The Winter Weather Advisory in place today is for an icy mix. The arrival may bring snow and sleet, but most of this event will have freezing rain. There is warm air aloft that will drop rain, but our ground is frozen solid. There is nothing easy about this forecast and I do not think computer models are able to handle this well due to how cold the ground is and the extent of ice on the Chesapeake Bay.

My one caution is that I have seen situations like this when temps may even warm a little above freezing in spots, but the ground is so cold, that rain freezes on contact. At least we will have a thaw for the rest of this week.

Arrival Time

The radar simulation is posted below.

Timing of this evening brings the precipitation in late morning on the north/west side, and early afternoon in metro areas. Even if this starts with the benefit of salt still on the roads and daytime solar heating, once the sun gets low we will have an icing problem. That time frame is 4 PM and beyond. Schools have a tough call about dismissal, but evening activities are likely to be postponed for many.

Stats For January 7

Normal High:  41ºF

Record High:  70ºF in 2008

Normal Low: 24ºF

*Former Record Low: 4ºF in 1970 

Snow Record: 6.7″ in 1996

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 5.2″

Sunrise: 7:26 AM

Sunset 5:01 PM

*Daylight = 1:03 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 31ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House. Since the water is brackish, salt content allows it to stay liquid and measure below 32ºF. It is the freshwater at the surface that freezes.

 

Morning Temperatures

These numbers have helped to reinforce the frozen ground

 

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May The Flakes Be With You- Limited Edition Shirt

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High Temperatures: Where Will The Ice Hold?

The purple area shows where the modeling may have trouble warming up too fast. Frozen ground and icy water on the Bay should allow colder temps to hold longer.

Note: Even if there are wet roads, they are like to ice up when the light gets low after 4PM

—-> slider: Simulated Radar

This model is having trouble identifying precipitation. The onset may have some snow and more likely sleet. Then freezing rain. I have annotated the Freezing Line in yellow. This is how the model sees it, but frozen ground and waterways may allow the cold to hold longer and farther south.

 

 

Temperature Outlook

 

Next Storm

Likely we get rain, but the modeling error does push storms a little father east. I will watch for any adjustment of track here that might impact our inland areas.

 

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Faith in DE Flakes

I survived the Blizzard of 2018- Special Edition shirt for Delaware. Sussex County was the big snow winner. See the snow measurements below. 

 

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Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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Keep In Touch All Winter

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends