Thursday February 1 2018

We have a new month and we are about the get a new storm pattern. The problem is that while it will turn colder and more active, the storm track will keep the snow and rain line very close. This is by no way a lock and one reason I hesitate with showing computer model plots because I am certain the track of the storm on the way will wobble a bit. There are a few things to track and the first will be Friday morning’s cold front. While rainFebruary 1 temperatures tonight will end as snow in the morning, the timing of the cold air is my primary concern. That will be Groundhog Day and we could have a clue at what Phill may say.  Then we can work on the Super Bowl Sunday storm.

Stats For February 1

Normal High:  42ºF

Record High:  75ºF in 2002

Normal Low: 25ºF

*Former Record Low: +7ºF in 1965

Snow Record: 9.0″ in 1934

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 7:13 AM

Sunset 5:27 PM

*Daylight = 2:04 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 35ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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This Afternoon:

Look for highs near 50ºF and increasing clouds with late day or evening rain showers…

 

Overnight

After a mild day, rain will arrive this evening and tonight. The cold front will bring in a change to snow, but the colder air will reach cloud level a few hours before reaching the ground. Stickage will be minimal and most likely on the grass. But, freezing temps drop into the 20s between 6 and 8 AM, which may ice up wet roads. This will be a tough commute. Should this speed up by 1 or two hours, we may have a better chance to plan ahead for schools.

 

Friday Morning

Radar Simulation—> slider

 

Temperatures: Flash Freeze?

This snapshot shows the quick drop of temperatures into the 20s during the morning commute

 

Super Bowl Sunday Storm

I do not subscribe the the Farmer’s Almanac claim, but there will be a storm heading our way. The problem is that despite the push of cold air Friday, we have had systems hold back and verify north. That is why the modeling for this event Sunday shows snow changing to rain. Also why the timing has shifted from Monday to Sunday.

*A reminder that mid and long range computer modeling is just a gauge but still rather poor in locking in storms more than 3 or 4 days away.

The hope for snow lovers is for a secondary Low Pressure to form along the coast that would hold the cold in place for some. That is the difference between the Canadian and GFS Models here. After the next model run this morning, I will give my take as to which solution I agree with. I still expect some wobbling of the timing and track from what is seen here.

 

Canadian Model: Secondary Low Holds The Cold

 

 

 

GFS Model- Single inland Low lets warmer air push farther north

 

Outlook

The jet stream will send more impulses of energy along with colder air over the next two weeks. Even though the modeling may not show it well, the pattern itself supports an active first half of February.

Temperature Outlook

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends