Friday February 2 2018

Rain overnight ended with a brief period of sleet and snow as expected.  The cold air lagged just a two hours behind and it will mean business as many drop into the 20s. My concern for a flash freeze all depends on how fast some roads can dry out, because what is wet will ice up in a hurry. The temperature timeline is below.  We may have some snow showers or flurries this morning and a storm to watch for Super Bowl Sunday, but this has nothing to do with Punxsutawney Phil in western Pennsylvania. A live video stream of Gobbler’s Knob and the Groundhog’s call can be found below. The official call from Phil will be around 7:25 AM this morning.

Stats For February 2

Normal High:  42ºF

Record High: 71ºF in 1967

Normal Low: 25ºF

*Former Record Low: +1ºF in 1961

Snow Record: 4.4″ in 1996

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Sunset 5:28 PM

*Daylight = 2:06 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 35ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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This Morning:

As of 5:30 AM the freezing line reached Frederic, Westminster and York PA. This will reach metro Baltimore during the 6 AM hour. Then pass quickly south and east. The race is on for pavement to dry or ice up. Sidewalks and some overpasses might get slick.

Temperature Timeline

 

Afternoon

Wind chills will be in the teens with strong gusts to 30 mph

Groundhog Video Stream

Note: In 130 years, Phil has only called for an early spring 18 times…

Click image for streaming video

 

Looking Ahead To Sunday

The Canadian GEM Model is still hanging on to the notion of snow lingering north and west Sunday afternoon and evening. The GFS Model shows snow developing in the morning and changing to rain in the afternoon. I will have more details on this later today.

 

Outlook

There are a few shots of colder air in the next two weeks (blue). This will be an active pattern and I don’t think the modeling is handling the surface features well. So there will be a few chances at snow coming up. FITF

 

Temperature Outlook

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends