Friday February 16 2018

It’s a mild and wet start to a rainy day.  A cold front has been slowly slipping south and it will take all day to move across our area. So expect rain and bring something extra to wear on the way home. Today will end chilly as temperatures have already reached their high for the day. The colder air sets us up for snow to arrive late Saturday afternoon, but I need to make this point again. Most of us will have this winter event with warm ground that will limit stickage.  Below are the timeline and updated and upgraded snow maps from The National Weather Service . My formal snowcast and few computer models to compare will be posted next.

Even after some snow and a chilly weekend, we will be back to a few days in the 70s next week.

 

Stats For February 16

Note: A few people have asked me about the term normal vs using averageScientifically ‘average’ is a better term for the stats below, but The National Weather Service has used the ‘normal’ term in their climate data. I have switched it below to satisfy the fellow science geeks.

Average High:  45ºF

Record High: 75ºF in 1954

Average  Low: 27ºF

*Former Record Low: +5ºF in 2015

Snow Record: 21.8″ in 2003

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 6:56 AM

Sunset 5:44 PM

*Daylight = 2:23 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 37ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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Rain Timeline Today

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Temperatures

This Morning

This Afternoon (Cooler)

Skipping Ahead To Saturday’s Snow

Expect snow to arrive late afternoon. It may begin a few hours earlier in the mountains and to the north of Baltimore in Southern PA, then fill in and spread across central Maryland by evening. This will be a quick event, likely done shortly after midnight for most.

Please note the temperatures and notes with snow total maps below

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Temperatures

Even by Sunday morning, after the snow ends shows only the northwest suburbs below freezing.  This means roads around I-95, through the cities and southward are likely to NOT have travel issues. But it may get icy in the northern counties.

 

My Best Call For The Snow Impacts

Snowfall Maps from NWS compared to a few models are below.

I still don’t trust the amount of snow falling all measuring up. There will be melting and even where the snow sticks, some will compact due to high water content.  I will post my first call for snowfall on Friday. Here is where I see the most likely impacts.

  • Northern suburbs 2 to 4 inches- The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
  • General 1 to 2 inches in metro areas, but most roads stay wet!
  • Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too war for stickage

 

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Snowfall Forecast Maps

National Weather Service Regional Zone Maps

Notes:

  • Northern suburbs 2 to 4 inches- The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
  • General 1 to 2 inches in metro areas, but most roads stay wet!
  • Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too war for stickage

 

 

 

 

Temperature Outlook

After a chilly weekend, we will be back to the lower 70s for a few days next week.

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

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Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends