Sunday February 25 2018

Do you remember that severe drought we were in? I think its safe to say it is pretty much over.  We have had plenty of rain and now a Flood Watch across Pennsylvania. One more batch of rain trying to usher in some warmer air later today is also producing some thick fog between Anne Arundel County, Southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore.  The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until noon, but should ease up in these areas as the rain moves back in over the morning hours. Meanwhile the rain will be ending on the north side sooner and perhaps some sun peaking out this afternoon.

Overall, the pattern shows us more rain and a flip to a much colder set up at the end of this week and the first half of March. I DO NOT believe in showing long range plot for storms as the models have proven they are not trustworthy. So if you have seen a snowstorm from some other weather source, it already has changed. But, I believe we are set up to get snow in the first 10 days of March. So winter is not done yet!

Stats For February 25

Average High:  47ºF

Record High: 83ºF in 1930

Average  Low: 28ºF

*Former Record Low: +58ºF in 1914

Snow Record: 5.0″ in 1934

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 8.7″

Sunrise: 6:44 AM

Sunset 5:54 PM

*Daylight = 2:30 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 42ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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Morning Temperatures

Rain Timeline Today

Notice the potential for a line of heavy showers or even a Thunderstorm pop up near Kent Island and southward after 5 PM

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How Warm This Afternoon?

The HRRR Model is pushing in much warmer air than GFS. It will be warm but the difference depends on how much sun we can get and when. Either upper 50s to near 60ºF or upper 60s in central Maryland 

 

 

Pattern Change

The next rain event will arrive on Thursday. This is the leading edge of the big change

 

Jet Stream Flip

Watch the change from our warm (orange) to colder (blue) Temperature Anomalies aloft.

 

Temperature Outlook

I think think the modeling is having a hard time identifying how cold we will get with the pattern change. So the default is close to average.

 

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FITF Gear

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends