May 9 2018 8:45 PM
A cold front will approach our area on Thursday. This will pump in a little more heat and humidity, but also how the trigger in the atmosphere to develop a few showers and storms. There may be one round late morning to lunch time, which will more likely impact western and northern hilly areas, not metro Baltimore. But the afternoon and evening will be a different story. At this time I would not promise the specifics timing and location. However, I like to show the radar simulation to help you plan ahead. The slider below will show that metro areas (Washington, Baltimore, and York PA) are more likely to get storms between 6 PM and 8 PM.
Water Vapor Satellite Loop Wednesday Evening
The flare up of storms this evening can be seen in the bright white line from Lake Michigan, across Chicago, and into central Illinois. That is the cold front and primary focus for us Thursday evening. But as seen here, we will have showers break out ahead of that main line.
Severe Risk: Marginal
The Storm Prediction Center has us in the ‘Marginal’ risk for storms to turn severe. The baseline for this would be winds at least 58 mph and or hail over 1 inch in diameter. However, we could have storms with winds just under that threshold and smaller hail, and not be considered severe.
The tornado risk is very low
As always, any storm can contain dangerous lightning which should be taken seriously.
Radar Simulation —> slider
High Temperatures: Tomorrow
Mothers Day Weekend
Looking ahead, there will be another surge of heat on Saturday as we could reach 90ºF. Then a cold front will arrive on Sunday with an increased threat of rain and drop in temperatures. I will have an update on that forecast in the morning.
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