July 18 2018
Things are about to change. If you have a browning lawn like me, then a change from the heat weather may be a good thing. It is hard to imagine after the floods this spring, but many hot days recently quickly dried out the topsoil. The thing is, our weather patterns have been all or nothing. It appears as if we are about to make the switch back to rain. Not all, but most of the next week ahead will bring increased active weather. As much as we need rain, this may not be good news for your plans and definitely a strain for my team’s final training of Maryland Trek 5.
The jet stream is about to make a flip this weekend with a trough providing the cool and stormy set up aloft. This is actually highlighted on the surface map with a modest summer time Low Pressure racing up the coast to the north. Let’s hope it runs out of time before it can develop. But on the heels will be another system warping around that same upper level pattern to reach us early next week. The stronger local hit could be Sunday night into Monday morning.
Here is a look at the Canadian Model which has the clearly view of the Low Pressure centers. There is some discrepancy among the forecast models as to how close or far off the coast they will be. But the message is that there will be an active pattern.
The pattern ahead will weaken the upper level cool air as a ridge of High Pressure in the Atlantic backs to the west. We will be in the transition zone and get some additional tropical moisture feed from the Atlantic. This will spell a very active set up almost each day next week.
Rain Every Day?
Notice I used a question mark… The resolution of the models at this point show rain almost every day across our region. This will depend on the set up of upper level features plus and surface ignition such as daytime heating. But we could be tracking developing storms almost each day PLUS some days that could bring steadier and heavier rain.
Just like the winter, the timing is subject to change and it is IMPOSSIBLE to pin down the specifics for a location and event time next week. I would just consider a contingency plan for possible rain and or storms.
Check out the GFS Model animation showing those green blobs all the way through next Friday
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