August 29 2018

We are now in the prime time period for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, yet all is quiet.  The latest satellite view shows a void or organized storms through the tropics. There is a wave entering the Eastern Caribbean, but it will be fighting some wind sheer. The flare up near the African coast is actually too far south near the equator to be concerned for any tropical development thanks to the Coriolis Effect.

Satellite Animation

August 29 weather satellite tropics

 

Most Active Time For Hurricanes

The target for peak hurricane activity in the Atlantic is around September 10, when water temperatures are at their warmest. But the prime time zone increase in the last week of August through the end of September.  Unless something happens fast, early seasons forecasts may fall short.

 

Average Hurricane Activity

 

Typical Storm Forming Regions Every 10 Days

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Average for now

There have been five named storms this year, two reaching hurricane intensity. But despite the season starting early, it is practically nonexistent now.

Here is a look back at the storms (with peak winds) through late August

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In an average year with 11 named storms, here is the breakdown of when the storm total would tally up:

TropicalBreakdown

  1. July 9
  2. August 1
  3. August 13
  4. August 23
  5. August 31 *target with 2018 to date
  6. September 8
  7. September 16
  8. September 24
  9. October 4
  10. October 19
  11. November 23

 

How The Forecast Have Been

 

This is not a surprise, as I mentioned in June to expect a quiet season for these 3 reasons.

 

Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures

This map from Levi Cowan compares similar years in the past four decades.  Notice that if we do get anything going, it is ‘likely’ to be in the eastern Atlantic. But there is a small chance for something again off of the southeast US coast.

I know some of you are already trying to draw a comparison to these analog years and the following winter snowfall totals. There is more to the mix than that. I will touch on it shortly.

 

Also See:

 

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